Expect significant new tariffs on Chinese imports and moderate levies on goods from other nations , as President-elect Donald Trump rolls out his protectionist agenda. However, with his preference for chaotic policymaking and sudden shifts , there’s uncertainty on how soon these import taxes will actually hit. Dubbed “ Tariff Man ,” Trump aims to use tariffs both strategically and tactically . He’s mentioned taxing all Chinese goods up to 60% and potentially setting 10%-20% tariffs on imports globally , but details on these plans remain vague . Key players within Trump’s team are divided: Robert Lighthizer , a staunch tariff advocate, sees permanent duties as crucial to balance US trade , while others, like billionaires John Paulson and Scott Bessent , view tariffs as temporary leverage. Trump’s previous administration had mixed feelings, especially on national security-related trade limits , which he sometimes dismissed, favoring an “open for business” approach. High-profile busin
Global Stocks Rally on China Stimulus, Yen Strengthens as Ishiba Win Boosts BOJ Policy Normalization
Global stocks hovered near record highs on Friday, bolstered by China's stimulus measures and the yen's sharp rise after Shigeru Ishiba emerged as Japan’s next prime minister. The STOXX 600 index in Europe gained 0.2%, with major indices like Germany's DAX, France's CAC 40, and Britain's FTSE 100 rising between 0.1% and 0.4%.
The yen appreciated by 1.4% to ¥142.78 per dollar, reversing earlier losses as Ishiba, seen as supportive of the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization, won the ruling party's leadership race. The dollar dropped 1.2% against the yen to ¥143.03.
Ishiba’s win was perceived as a relief for the BOJ, which has recently shifted away from negative rates. Analysts believe that Ishiba's fiscal policies could support regional economic growth, and upcoming inflation results and Fed actions will be crucial in guiding BOJ's next move.
China Stimulus Drives Market Optimism
China’s blue-chip stocks surged 4.5%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed 3.6%, marking their best weekly performances since 2008 and 1998, respectively. This rally followed Beijing's significant efforts to revive its economy, including a reduction in banks' reserve requirement ratio and multiple cuts to the reverse repo rate.
Commodities also benefited from China’s stimulus, with iron ore rising above US$100 per tonne, and copper, gold, and silver prices reaching new highs. However, oil prices faced losses, with Brent crude down 3.9% for the week amid reports that Saudi Arabia is preparing to increase output.
Focus on ECB and Fed Rate Cuts
In Europe, the euro fell 0.3% to US$1.1141 following lower-than-expected inflation data from France and Spain, increasing bets on an ECB rate cut in October. The probability of an ECB cut jumped to 80%, compared to 20% earlier in the week.
In the US, Treasury yields rose amid lower jobless claims and anticipation of the core PCE price index release, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Investors remain split on the size of a potential Fed rate cut in November.
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