Expect significant new tariffs on Chinese imports and moderate levies on goods from other nations , as President-elect Donald Trump rolls out his protectionist agenda. However, with his preference for chaotic policymaking and sudden shifts , there’s uncertainty on how soon these import taxes will actually hit. Dubbed “ Tariff Man ,” Trump aims to use tariffs both strategically and tactically . He’s mentioned taxing all Chinese goods up to 60% and potentially setting 10%-20% tariffs on imports globally , but details on these plans remain vague . Key players within Trump’s team are divided: Robert Lighthizer , a staunch tariff advocate, sees permanent duties as crucial to balance US trade , while others, like billionaires John Paulson and Scott Bessent , view tariffs as temporary leverage. Trump’s previous administration had mixed feelings, especially on national security-related trade limits , which he sometimes dismissed, favoring an “open for business” approach. High-profile busin
European stocks, after hitting record highs in 2024, face a challenging road ahead as fund managers from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and Northern Trust warn of rising risks from a weak economic outlook, uncertain corporate earnings, and the looming US presidential election.
BlackRock’s Helen Jewell cautioned that the fragile market could remain volatile, particularly with uncertainty surrounding the US election and a shaky macroeconomic backdrop in Europe, where the eurozone’s private sector has been shrinking and Germany faces a potential contraction.
Adding to the uncertainty is the upcoming third-quarter earnings season in mid-October. With consumer demand weakening, early signs suggest that earnings for some major companies, including Novo Nordisk and H&M, may disappoint. Expectations for full-year earnings have already dropped 2.8% since January, and some analysts believe further downgrades are likely.
The US election adds another layer of risk, particularly if Donald Trump wins and enacts a proposed 10% import tariff, which could spark a trade war, further pressuring European earnings in sectors like automobiles, technology, and capital goods.
While China’s recent stimulus measures offer some hope, experts like Gilles Guibout from Axa IM remain cautious, noting that the impact on European equities, particularly luxury goods and automakers, remains uncertain.
Ultimately, upcoming earnings reports will likely set the direction for Europe’s stock market, leaving investors to navigate an increasingly complex and volatile landscape.
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