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Russia Holds Key Rate at 21% Amid Surging Inflation

The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high  21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to  8.9%  in November, well above the central bank’s  4% target , with inflation expectations reaching  13.9%  in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s  200-basis point hike  as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
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UK Economic Growth Revised Down, Impacting Starmer's Agenda

The UK's economic growth for the second quarter of 2024 has been revised down to 0.5%, from an initial estimate of 0.6%, according to the Office for National Statistics. This suggests that the economic recovery is losing momentum as Labour, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, took power. The downgrade follows 0.7% growth in the first quarter, with no revision expected by economists.

This revision is a setback for Starmer, who has promised to boost growth to 2.5%, far higher than the current levels and what forecasters predict in the near future. Further slowing is evident, with July output flatlining for the third time in four months, raising concerns about the economic outlook.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce tax rises and spending cuts in her October 30 budget, aiming to address a budget deficit inherited from the previous government. Surveys suggest the UK economy could slow to a quarterly growth rate of 0.3%.

While real disposable income per head rose 1% in the second quarter due to wages outpacing inflation, the saving ratio increased to 10%, indicating that consumers remain cautious about spending.

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