The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
Oil prices continued their three-day slide on Friday, with Brent crude dropping by 0.28% to US$71.40 per barrel and WTI falling 0.21% to US$67.53. Both benchmarks are set for weekly losses, with Brent crude expected to shed 4% and WTI 6%.
The decline in prices is driven by expectations of increased output from Libya and the Opec+ group, which have overshadowed China’s fresh stimulus efforts. China’s central bank recently lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system to boost economic growth, sparking optimism across other asset classes, but oil markets remain fixated on supply concerns.
Libya's recent agreement to resolve a dispute that had sharply reduced its oil production is expected to restore 500,000 barrels per day to the market. Additionally, Opec+, which is currently cutting oil output by 5.86 million bpd, plans to reverse 180,000 bpd of those cuts in December.
Despite the stimulus from China, the world’s top oil importer, analysts like Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova note uncertainty over whether this will translate into higher fuel demand. While the stimulus may offer some relief, oil markets are still grappling with weakening demand and rising supply concerns.
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