The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
This week, global attention will shift to two major events: the release of critical US economic data and Xi Jinping's policy speech in China. Following the US Federal Reserve’s 50-basis-point rate cut on Sept 18, investors will focus on economic indicators that reveal the strength of the US economy, particularly as concerns over the labor market grow.
The highlight will be the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for September, due on Oct 4. Economists expect 140,000 jobs to have been created in September, down slightly from 142,000 in August, with the unemployment rate anticipated to hold at 4.2%. A weaker-than-expected result could further signal a softening US economy.
On Oct 1, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release its survey on US manufacturing activity. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is projected to be 47.6, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction. However, a consistent reading above 42.5 generally signals overall economic expansion.
In US politics, the vice-presidential debate between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz is scheduled for Oct 2, drawing further interest as election season heats up. Additionally, a potential dock worker strike on the US East Coast and Gulf ports, set for Sept 30, could cause significant economic disruptions if no contract agreement is reached.
In China, the country will mark its National Day Golden Week holiday from Oct 1 to 7, with a significant policy speech by President Xi Jinping on Oct 1 to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. Xi’s speech is expected to touch on stimulus measures aimed at revitalizing China's economic growth and addressing the troubled property sector. Reports suggest that China may issue special sovereign bonds worth RMB 2 trillion, potentially announced before the National Day holiday.
Both events — US economic data and Xi's policy announcements — will play pivotal roles in shaping global market sentiment this week.
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