Expect significant new tariffs on Chinese imports and moderate levies on goods from other nations , as President-elect Donald Trump rolls out his protectionist agenda. However, with his preference for chaotic policymaking and sudden shifts , there’s uncertainty on how soon these import taxes will actually hit. Dubbed “ Tariff Man ,” Trump aims to use tariffs both strategically and tactically . He’s mentioned taxing all Chinese goods up to 60% and potentially setting 10%-20% tariffs on imports globally , but details on these plans remain vague . Key players within Trump’s team are divided: Robert Lighthizer , a staunch tariff advocate, sees permanent duties as crucial to balance US trade , while others, like billionaires John Paulson and Scott Bessent , view tariffs as temporary leverage. Trump’s previous administration had mixed feelings, especially on national security-related trade limits , which he sometimes dismissed, favoring an “open for business” approach. High-profile busin
China has ramped up stimulus efforts to prevent its economy from slipping into a deflationary spiral, with measures including interest rate cuts, eased home-buying rules, and cash handouts. The People’s Bank of China slashed rates on one-year loans and the government rolled out subsidies to support jobless graduates. These moves are aimed at reviving growth in the world's second-largest economy, but analysts warn this might only be a temporary fix.
Globally, here's a roundup of key economic trends and developments:
Asia
- China: Despite the stimulus, China is expected to miss its 2024 growth target as the property slump continues to weigh heavily on economic momentum. The People's Bank of China cut its medium-term lending rate to 2%, marking the largest reduction on record.
- India: Gold imports surged ahead of the festive season, boosted by tax cuts, signaling strong demand in the world’s second-largest gold consumer.
US
- US Core Inflation: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure—core personal consumption expenditures—rose 2.1% over the past three months, aligning with the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, commercial property prices are slowly climbing again, signaling a potential recovery in the sector.
- US GDP: Recent data revisions show a stronger rebound in the US economy post-pandemic, with gross domestic income also revised higher.
Europe
- Swiss Central Bank: Switzerland cut interest rates for the third consecutive meeting, with inflation forecasts lowered. Meanwhile, inflation in France and Spain has dropped below 2%, increasing expectations of rate cuts by the European Central Bank.
Emerging Markets
- Mexico: For the second month, Mexico's central bank cut interest rates, reflecting cooling inflation and slowing growth.
- Zambia: Zambia’s economy is poised for its fastest growth in 13 years, following a severe drought that hit the nation’s agricultural output.
Geopolitical Tensions
- Israel and Hezbollah: Israel has escalated airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, raising concerns of a broader regional conflict that could impact global markets.
Central Bank Moves
- Central banks across the globe are adjusting rates to cope with inflation, with Australia, Sweden, Hungary, and Nigeria all making significant changes in their monetary policies.
As the global economy faces both opportunities and challenges, the coming months will test the effectiveness of these stimulus measures and monetary policy adjustments in stabilizing markets and fostering growth.
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