Skip to main content

Featured Post

Market Daily Report: Bursa Malaysia Gives Up Earlier Gains To End Mixed

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 19 (Bernama) -- Bursa Malaysia gave up earlier gains to end mixed today, amid a higher regional market showing, as property, construction, and healthcare counters attracted buying interests, while plantation, banking, and telecommunication stocks saw some profit-taking, an analyst said. At 5 pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) eased 1.70 points to close at 1,602.34 from yesterday’s close of 1,604.04. The benchmark index, which opened 0.86 of-a-point lower at 1,603.18, moved between 1,601.02 and 1,608.88 during the trading session. However, the broader market was mixed to higher, with gainers leading decliners by 565 to 438 while 502 counters remained unchanged, 961 untraded, and 14 suspended. Turnover narrowed to 2.83 billion units valued at RM2.08 billion versus 2.96 billion units valued at RM2.23 billion yesterday. Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd equity research vice-president Thong Pak Leng said the benchmark index remained range-bound and it required a dec

Investors Sidestep the Dollar as US Election Looms

As uncertainty looms over the upcoming US elections, investors are increasingly favoring trades that circumvent the US dollar, the world’s primary reserve currency. This trend has emerged from a cautious stance regarding the dollar's outlook, prompting market participants to explore cross-currency trades that are less influenced by Federal Reserve policy and electoral outcomes.

Recent activity includes shorting the Swiss franc against the Japanese yen and buying the British pound versus the New Zealand dollar. According to Elsa Lignos, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, "Investors are trying to stay clear of the dollar and take more cross-currency exposure" due to the uncertain election results, making it challenging to forecast currency movements accurately.

This shift represents a unique scenario in the foreign-exchange market, where the dollar typically dominates, accounting for about 88% of all trades in the $7.5 trillion-a-day market, as reported by the Bank for International Settlements. However, with the Federal Reserve contemplating how rapidly to cut interest rates and the elections approaching, many traders prefer not to take strong positions on the dollar.

Long-Term Dollar Positioning Remains Neutral

Long-term investors have adopted a neutral stance on USD holdings, the most neutral in the past 2.5 years, according to State Street Global Markets. Notable financial institutions like Wells Fargo, RBC, Allspring Global Investments, and State Street Global Advisors are refraining from making significant dollar bets until the political landscape becomes clearer.

While speculative players have added to bets against the dollar recently, their positioning is not as extreme as earlier in the month. Instead, there is a growing interest in cross-currency pairs. For instance, RBC recommends shorting the franc against the yen, while Allspring anticipates the euro weakening against the Norwegian krone.

Political Uncertainty Influences Currency Moves

With Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly leading Donald Trump in the polls, confidence regarding the election’s impact on the dollar has diminished. Investment strategies are waiting for clarity on the elections, with many suggesting to "get through that growth uncertainty" before making decisive moves on the dollar.

The outlook for Federal Reserve policy remains another source of uncertainty. Bloomberg's dollar index has declined approximately 3% since August, following one of the weakest non-farm payroll prints since the pandemic. Investors are now keenly anticipating upcoming job data to provide insight into the Fed's potential next steps.

Market analysts from JPMorgan and Nomura have opted for a cautious approach, keeping overall dollar exposure light until more concrete labor-market data becomes available. Nomura, in particular, expects currencies like the sterling and Australian dollar to appreciate against the New Zealand dollar instead of the US dollar, as they believe market expectations regarding Fed easing may be overstated.

Conclusion: The Path Ahead for the Dollar

With the election risk intensifying, many traders are opting to avoid large bets on the dollar, although demand for the currency remains strong for longer-term positions due to its haven status. As the political climate evolves, market positioning is expected to shift further, particularly as the election approaches and macroeconomic conditions unfold.

The prevailing sentiment indicates that while there is a modestly bearish outlook for the dollar over the next month, traders are wary of the political landscape's volatility and are seeking to navigate these turbulent waters by avoiding direct exposure to the US dollar.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

INTC Share Watch and News

Stock Info Market Monitor Company Profile Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells integrated circuits for computing and communications industries worldwide. It offers microprocessor products used in notebooks, netbooks, desktops, servers, workstations, storage products, embedded applications, communications products, consumer electronics devices, and handhelds. The company also offers system on chip products that integrate its core processing functionalities with other system components, such as graphics, audio, and video, onto a single chip. It also provides chipset products that send data between the microprocessor and input, display, and storage devices, such as keyboard, mouse, monitor, hard drive, and CD or DVD drives; motherboards that has connectors for attaching devices to the bus, and products designed for desktop, server, and workstation platforms; and wired and wireless connectivity products, including network adapters and embedded wireless cards used to translat

3M Raises Profit Forecast After Beating Quarterly Estimates on Electronics Demand

3M Co raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted profit forecast after strong demand for electronics and industrial products helped the company surpass quarterly profit expectations. Shares of 3M were up 4.2% at $140.5 in pre-market trading. An increase in demand for electronics used in vehicles and mobile phones boosted profits for the company, which had previously faced challenges as high inflation led consumers to delay major purchases. The industrial sector is also expected to benefit from the recent US Federal Reserve decision to cut borrowing costs in September, encouraging more consumer spending. 3M has implemented cost-cutting measures, including job reductions and spinning off its healthcare business, to counter the impact of a demand slowdown . Key highlights from the report: Sales in the transportation and electronics segment grew 1.8% year-on-year. Sales in the safety and industrial segment , which produces adhesives for industrial use, increased by 0.5% . 3M&

Key Corporate Updates from Malaysia

Ekovest Bhd : Major shareholder Tan Sri Lim Kang Hoo is considering selling his toll-road business, Konsortium Lebuhraya Utara-Timur (KL) Sdn Bhd (Kesturi), for up to RM5 billion. Ekovest owns 60% of Kesturi, with the remainder held by the Employees Provident Fund (EPF). Eco World Development Group Bhd : Through its subsidiary Mutiara Balau Sdn Bhd, EcoWorld is acquiring 847.25 acres in Semenyih, Selangor for RM742.41 million to develop Eco Forest 2, a project with an estimated RM4.6 billion in gross development value. Mah Sing Group Bhd : Mah Sing has purchased 5.24 acres on Old Klang Road for RM113 million to build M Aurora, a transit-oriented development with an estimated RM660 million gross development value, anticipated for launch in early 2025. Pentamaster Corp Bhd : The company’s third-quarter net profit dropped 49.9% to RM11.77 million, impacted by lower sales in its automated test equipment division and foreign exchange losses. Sentral REIT : The REIT saw a 25