The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
Analysts are forecasting a significant boost in Affin Bank Bhd's deposits following the Sarawak government's decision to increase its ownership stake in the bank to 31%, making it the largest shareholder. This move is expected to enhance the bank's current account and savings account (CASA) contributions.
CIMB Securities upgraded its fair value estimate for Affin Bank to RM4.30, up from RM4.00, while maintaining a “buy” recommendation. The firm anticipates new CASA contributions of at least RM4 billion in FY2025, allowing the bank to release more expensive fixed deposits.
TA Securities echoed this optimism, noting that Affin Bank's strategic positioning as a financing vehicle for the Sarawak government could provide significant opportunities in loan growth, advisory roles, and infrastructure projects. Additionally, the expected salary increases for Sarawak’s civil servants could boost the bank’s CASA deposit base.
Affin Bank is also set to benefit from the Sarawak-Malaysia My Second Home Programme, which could attract affluent foreign residents, enhancing its wealth management division.
However, MIDF Research expressed caution, maintaining a "sell" recommendation, noting that Affin's current valuation, trading at 0.6x price-to-book value (P/BV), is above its five-year historical average of 0.34x. MIDF believes that while the Sarawak government’s stake increase will positively impact deposits, the benefits may take time to materialize. Additionally, Affin faces challenges, including cost pressures from enhancing its digital capabilities and expanding its presence in Sarawak.
At the time of writing, Affin Bank’s shares were down nine sen or 3.1% at RM2.86, valuing the bank at RM6.9 billion.
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