The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
Despite a lukewarm response to the launch of the iPhone 16, Apple Inc. shares remain resilient, continuing a multi-month rally. The AI tools touted for the new iPhone won’t arrive until a software update in October, and analysts suggest that pre-orders and lead times have been cautious, dampening the most optimistic expectations for a significant upgrade cycle.
However, Apple stock has largely avoided the volatility seen by its Big Tech peers, with much of Wall Street still expecting the AI iPhones to eventually accelerate growth. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors, acknowledged the weaker-than-expected iPhone launch but remains confident in the company's long-term prospects, citing its diverse revenue streams, predictable earnings, and massive cash flow.
This confidence has pushed Apple’s stock up nearly 40% since April, adding US$911 billion to its market cap, with the stock price just 3% below its all-time high. Investors view Apple as a safe haven, given its track record of steady earnings growth and its massive stock buybacks, with the largest in US history announced in May. Unlike other tech giants, Apple has refrained from heavy AI-related capital expenditures, which have raised concerns among investors.
Nevertheless, Apple’s stock is trading at 31 times estimated earnings, significantly above its 10-year average and the Nasdaq 100 Index. This high valuation makes the stock vulnerable if the much-anticipated upgrade cycle fails to materialize. Analysts have lowered their expectations for iPhone unit sales growth, with Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg Intelligence forecasting slower growth than initially predicted.
While the iPhone 16’s demand remains uncertain, investors are awaiting the rollout of the phone's AI tools, which could reignite interest in the product and drive future growth.
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