The euro fell against the dollar on Monday after disappointing business activity reports from the euro zone, which contrasted with steady data from the U.S. The euro's decline extended briefly after U.S. data showed stronger economic resilience, as markets brace for key speeches from Federal Reserve officials later this week.
Weakness in the euro zone's economy is reinforcing expectations of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). Markets are currently pricing in a 77% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut during the ECB's October meeting. A survey from S&P Global revealed that euro zone business activity sharply contracted in September, with a flatlining services sector and an accelerated downturn in manufacturing. Germany’s economic decline worsened, while France fell back into contraction after a brief boost in August.
In contrast, the U.S. showed stable business activity, with S&P Global's U.S. Composite PMI Output Index at 54.4 for September, signaling expansion. However, prices for goods and services rose at the fastest pace in six months, suggesting that inflationary pressures may increase in the coming months. This follows last week's 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a move several officials have said was aimed at balancing the economy.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, including the yen and euro, edged up 0.05% to 100.83, after touching a session high of 101.23. The euro declined 0.39% to $1.112, marking its largest daily drop since September 9.
Michael Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, noted, "Interest rate expectations are driving the market, with the Federal Reserve expected to be more aggressive in cutting rates compared to other central banks."
Meanwhile, sterling strengthened by 0.2% to $1.3345 following a report showing British business activity slowed in September, but fared better than the euro zone. The Bank of England left rates unchanged last week, cautioning against cutting rates too quickly.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.37% to 143.38 yen after reaching a two-week high last week. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady and signaled no urgency to raise them, amid political uncertainty ahead of a ruling party vote for a new prime minister.
This week, markets are also looking to policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank and Riksbank, both of which are expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.

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