Japan's consumer inflation rate is expected to rise for the fourth consecutive month in August, according to a Reuters poll of 20 economists. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes fresh food but includes energy items, is forecast to increase by 2.8% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in July. This ongoing inflation, driven by rising electricity, gas, and food prices due to rice shortages, continues to surpass the Bank of Japan's 2% target, increasing expectations for further rate hikes.
Trade and Export Data
Data due next week is expected to show that Japan's exports continued to grow in August, driven by a recovery in chip-related shipments. Exports are projected to have risen by 10% year-on-year, slightly below July's 10.3% increase. However, imports are anticipated to have grown by 13.4%, fueled by higher imports of computer and communication equipment, compared to a 16.6% rise in the previous month. This imbalance is likely to result in a trade deficit estimated at 1.38 trillion yen ($9.79 billion).
Upcoming Data Releases
- The Internal Affairs Ministry will release the CPI data on September 20 at 8:30 a.m. local time (2330 GMT, September 19).
- The Finance Ministry will announce the trade statistics on September 18 at 8:50 a.m. local time (2350 GMT, September 17).
Machinery Orders and Capital Spending
Machinery orders, a volatile but key indicator of future capital spending, are expected to have grown at a slower pace of 0.5% month-on-month in July, following a 2.1% increase in June. This data will also be released on September 18 at 8:50 a.m. local time (2350 GMT, September 17).

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