面对供应过剩、价格战以及欧盟、印度、巴基斯坦和巴西等主要出口市场日益增长的保护主义威胁，中国领先的光伏出口商——包括天合光能、隆基绿能和通威股份——承诺停止在海外市场的价格下调竞争。这一举措旨在稳定出口市场，推动行业可持续发展。 主要动态 行业协作： 由 中国机电产品进出口商会 牵头成立了由 22家光伏企业 组成的“自律”委员会，致力于促进健康竞争，稳定出口价格。 政策调整： 自 12月1日 起，硅片、电池片和组件的出口退税率将从 13% 降至 9% ，旨在鼓励出口高附加值产品，减少反倾销调查风险。 产能过剩危机： 过度生产导致价格下滑，造成大量亏损、裁员，甚至企业破产，给中国光伏企业带来沉重压力。 全球影响： 中国在光伏出口市场的主导地位受到越来越多的关注，外国市场可能采取反补贴措施，这为行业增加了更多的不确定性。 专家观点 大和证券分析师Dennis Ip： 退税率下调可能对光伏组件公司的短期财务状况产生负面影响，但从长期来看影响有限。 隆基绿能的观点： 行业领导者认为，这一举措是中国光伏行业的“转折点”，强调合作对于维持全球竞争力的重要性。 展望 随着中国光伏企业努力实现市场稳定，向高附加值产品和合作战略的转型有望改善行业的全球形象和长期韧性。然而， 产能过剩 和 退税减少 的直接挑战依然严峻。在国际市场压力下，如何平衡短期财务影响与长期发展需求，将成为行业关键议题
China's industrial profits declined for the third consecutive month, falling 10% year-on-year in October, as ongoing producer price deflation and sluggish factory output overshadowed the effects of recent stimulus measures.
Key Highlights
October Profit Decline:
- Profits fell 10% compared to a sharper 27.1% decline in September.
- Bloomberg Economics had forecast a larger 20% drop.
Year-to-Date Performance:
- Profits contracted 4.3% in the first 10 months of 2024 versus the same period in 2023.
- The data points to a third annual decline in industrial profits.
Sector Impact:
- Industrial profits measure the financial health of factories, mines, and utilities, influencing investment decisions.
Contributing Factors
Deflationary Pressures:
- Producer prices fell faster than expected in October, marking China’s longest period of deflation since 1999.
- Weak domestic demand continues to strain corporate finances.
Output Challenges:
- Industrial output stagnated despite policy support.
- Large enterprises face constrained balance sheets, limiting performance recovery.
Global Headwinds:
- Donald Trump’s election victory raises risks of steep tariffs on Chinese goods, further challenging exports.
- Trade barriers in regions like the European Union compound difficulties for exporters.
Signs of Recovery
Stimulus Impact:
- Recent measures, including monetary easing and real estate sector support, have shown tentative results.
- Infrastructure investment remained steady in October, and the urban jobless rate fell to a four-month low.
Incremental Policy Gains:
- The National Bureau of Statistics noted that accelerated policy implementation is improving performance, though profits remain in decline.
Outlook
China's industrial sector continues to face significant domestic and external pressures, with profits unlikely to recover rapidly without sustained policy intervention. The global trade environment, particularly with Trump’s tariff threats, poses additional challenges for an export-reliant economy already grappling with deflation and weak demand. Signs of improving confidence offer hope, but risks remain elevated.
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