US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs on Mexico has sent shockwaves through the economy, with analysts slashing 2025 growth forecasts. Moody’s projects just 0.6% growth, the weakest since 2020, while S&P Global cut its estimate to 1.2% amid fears of reduced trade, investment, and remittances.
Economists warn the proposed tariffs could jeopardize nearly 11% of Mexico’s GDP, while dampening foreign investment in key sectors like manufacturing. Despite efforts by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to negotiate with Trump, uncertainty lingers over bilateral trade relations.
Trump claims Mexico has agreed to curb migration and drug inflows, but retaliatory tariffs are being prepared as a contingency. Analysts argue that any tariffs would harm American companies, potentially leading to their swift reversal.
Key highlights:
- Peso gains 0.5% to 20.49 per dollar following Trump’s comments.
- Mexico surpassed China as the US’s top trading partner.
- Bank of America and Franklin Templeton predict tariffs, if imposed, will likely be short-lived.
- Mexico’s central bank remains cautious, monitoring potential inflation and economic impacts.
While the long-term outlook remains uncertain, Mexico's resilience and targeted strategies could mitigate some of the immediate challenges posed by tariff threats.
Comments
Post a Comment