面对供应过剩、价格战以及欧盟、印度、巴基斯坦和巴西等主要出口市场日益增长的保护主义威胁，中国领先的光伏出口商——包括天合光能、隆基绿能和通威股份——承诺停止在海外市场的价格下调竞争。这一举措旨在稳定出口市场，推动行业可持续发展。 主要动态 行业协作： 由 中国机电产品进出口商会 牵头成立了由 22家光伏企业 组成的“自律”委员会，致力于促进健康竞争，稳定出口价格。 政策调整： 自 12月1日 起，硅片、电池片和组件的出口退税率将从 13% 降至 9% ，旨在鼓励出口高附加值产品，减少反倾销调查风险。 产能过剩危机： 过度生产导致价格下滑，造成大量亏损、裁员，甚至企业破产，给中国光伏企业带来沉重压力。 全球影响： 中国在光伏出口市场的主导地位受到越来越多的关注，外国市场可能采取反补贴措施，这为行业增加了更多的不确定性。 专家观点 大和证券分析师Dennis Ip： 退税率下调可能对光伏组件公司的短期财务状况产生负面影响，但从长期来看影响有限。 隆基绿能的观点： 行业领导者认为，这一举措是中国光伏行业的“转折点”，强调合作对于维持全球竞争力的重要性。 展望 随着中国光伏企业努力实现市场稳定，向高附加值产品和合作战略的转型有望改善行业的全球形象和长期韧性。然而， 产能过剩 和 退税减少 的直接挑战依然严峻。在国际市场压力下，如何平衡短期财务影响与长期发展需求，将成为行业关键议题
European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are shifting their focus from inflation to weak economic growth, as the Eurozone struggles with stagnation and looming trade risks from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs.
Key Concerns for the ECB
- Economic Stagnation:Portuguese central bank chief Mario Centeno warned that the economy is stagnating with "risks accumulating downwards." He highlighted Trump’s tariff threats as a potential downside risk to growth.
- Interest Rates Outlook:The ECB has already cut interest rates three times in 2024. Investors expect further reductions at every policy meeting until mid-2025, as the bloc teeters on the edge of recession.
- Growth Becoming a Priority:ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized that growth, rather than inflation, is now the bank’s top concern. He cautioned that tariffs could trigger a “vicious cycle” of retaliatory trade wars, harming global growth and financial stability.
Trump’s Tariff Threats and Eurozone Impact
- Trump pledged to impose large tariffs on the U.S.’s top three trading partners — Canada, Mexico, and China — immediately after taking office.
- French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued that while the inflation effect in Europe may be limited, U.S. tariffs could drive up long-term interest rates globally, impacting the Eurozone.
Growth Risks and Rate Predictions
- Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn predicted subdued growth and a tepid recovery, suggesting the ECB might cut its key rate to a neutral level (2.0%-2.5%) by early spring.
- Money markets anticipate the deposit rate could drop to 1.75% next year, a level aimed at stimulating economic growth.
A Global "Lose-Lose" Scenario
De Guindos warned that tariffs could lead to a "lose-lose" situation, where all countries suffer. However, the U.S. might lose the most as other nations redirect exports elsewhere, leaving American companies exposed to retaliatory tariffs globally.
With Eurozone growth stagnating and trade wars looming, ECB policymakers face mounting pressure to respond decisively to protect the region’s fragile recovery. The coming months will test the ECB's ability to balance monetary easing with geopolitical uncertainties.
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