The Japanese yen surged past the 150 per dollar threshold, strengthening as much as 1% to 149.999, its highest level since October. This came amid growing market expectations of a narrowing yield gap between the US and Japan by next month.
Key Drivers:
- Hotter-than-expected Tokyo consumer price data spurred bets on a Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike at its December meeting.
- Liquidity was low due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, amplifying market moves.
- Reduced momentum in the “Trump trade” and waning pressure for a stronger dollar shifted focus to the yen as a target for dollar selling, according to Yujiro Goto, head of FX strategy at Nomura Securities.
Market Expectations:
- Overnight-indexed swaps show a 63% probability of a BOJ rate hike in December and a 68% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
- A narrowing yield gap could bolster the yen and weaken the appeal of the carry trade, where investors borrow in yen to invest in higher-yielding markets.
As markets gear up for potential policy shifts, the yen's rally reflects heightened sensitivity to monetary policy expectations and economic data.
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