A selloff in major technology companies halted the S&P 500’s seven-day rally, with the index falling 0.4% from all-time highs. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3%. Declines were fueled by disappointing earnings from Dell Technologies and HP Inc, which fell over 11%, and news of a Federal Trade Commission antitrust investigation into Microsoft Corp.
Key Market Drivers:
- Inflation Data: The Fed’s preferred core inflation measure rose 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with estimates but underscoring “sticky” inflation. This bolstered the Fed’s stance of maintaining rates, despite healthy economic expansion.
- 10-Year Treasury Yields: Declined six basis points to 4.25%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%.
- Bitcoin: Surged amid broader market adjustments.
Sector Rotation and Analyst Sentiment:
The tech slump signals potential challenges for 2025, but broader sector rotation is keeping market momentum alive. “It’s beginning to look a lot like ‘tech mess,’” said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG. LPL Financial’s Quincy Krosby highlighted that while inflation is trending favorably, persistent pressures could alter investor expectations for rate cuts.
Market Outlook:
- JPMorgan Chase & Co released a 2025 year-end S&P 500 target of 6,500, surpassing the consensus of 6,300.
- Seasonal trends favor continued gains, with the S&P 500 historically averaging a 1.8% increase from Thanksgiving to year-end, rising 70% of the time since 1950.
- The S&P 500 has surged 25% in 2024, outpacing international peers like the MSCI World Ex-USA Index, with US stocks trading at a 60% premium based on forward P/E ratios.
Despite a temporary breather, robust AI-driven growth, strong economic resilience, and seasonal tailwinds suggest US stocks could maintain their upward trajectory into year-end.
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