German consumer sentiment is set to tumble in December, with the GfK/NIM index dropping to -23.3 points, down from -18.4 in November. This marks the lowest level since May and reflects rising pessimism about income prospects due to reports of job cuts and relocation of production abroad.
Major companies, including Bayer, Volkswagen, and Thyssenkrupp, have announced layoffs, while bankruptcies are on the rise. Analysts expected a milder dip to -18.6, but the steep decline highlights growing challenges in Europe’s largest economy, which is forecast to shrink by 0.2% in 2024—its second consecutive year of contraction.
The collapse of Germany's ruling coalition and upcoming snap elections in February have further heightened uncertainty, prompting households to increase savings, according to DIW economic expert Laura Pagenhardt. The DIW barometer fell to 83.7, well below the neutral mark of 100, signaling worsening economic conditions.
While real disposable incomes are recovering as wage growth outpaces inflation, the report notes that hopes for a robust economic recovery have faded. Experts like Melanie Debono of Pantheon Macroeconomics predict consumer confidence may rebound once political uncertainty eases. For now, the consumer climate indicator suggests a drop in private consumption year-on-year, underlining the strain on Germany’s economy.
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