Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity is expected to surge following Donald Trump’s election victory, driven by a favorable regulatory environment and strong market conditions. However, the majority of these deals—70%-75%—are likely to fail, according to a new book, The M&A Failure Trap . Key Findings on M&A Failures Historical Failure Rates: Analysis of 40,000 acquisitions over 40 years found that 70%-75% of M&A deals do not meet expectations. Only 20% of acquisitions made during hot markets (S&P 500 trailing 24-month return > 50%) succeeded, compared to 41% during weaker markets. Why M&A Fails: Overpriced Deals: CEOs often overpay for target companies. Strategic Misfits: Acquired businesses fail to integrate effectively into the parent company. Overconfidence: Overconfident CEOs pursuing aggressive acquisitions see a 50% lower success rate compared to their more cautious counterparts. “Winning by Losing”: Companies losing bidding wars for acquisition
TikTok CEO Shou Chew has reportedly reached out to Elon Musk for guidance on navigating the incoming Trump administration, as the video-sharing platform faces increasing pressure over national security concerns.
Key Developments
Chew's Outreach to Musk
- Chew initiated contact with Musk, who owns Tesla, SpaceX, and the rival social-media platform X (formerly Twitter), in recent weeks.
- Conversations reportedly centered around U.S. tech policies and insights into the Trump administration, rather than explicit strategies to prevent a TikTok ban.
- ByteDance executives, including Chew, view Musk as a potential ally given his proximity to President-elect Trump.
Musk's Influence in the Trump Administration
- Musk, a close confidant of Trump, has been staying at Mar-a-Lago since the election and has participated in cabinet discussions and calls with global leaders like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai.
- Business leaders have sought Musk’s advice due to his unprecedented access to the president-elect and influence over policy discussions.
TikTok’s Challenges
- Looming Ban:
- A Biden-era law requires ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations by mid-January, or the platform could face a nationwide ban.
- TikTok has filed a federal lawsuit, arguing the law violates users’ free-speech rights.
- National Security Concerns:
- Proponents of the ban claim TikTok poses a risk of spying on Americans and allowing the Chinese government to influence the content it serves.
- TikTok has denied these allegations, stating it wouldn’t comply with demands from Beijing.
ByteDance’s Strategy
- ByteDance has firmly stated it will not sell TikTok’s U.S. operations, focusing instead on its lawsuit against the legislation.
- Before the election, the company hedged its bets by meeting with individuals close to both Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
What's Next?
- A federal appeals court decision on TikTok’s lawsuit is expected by early December.
- ByteDance is cautiously optimistic about a path forward, leveraging Chew’s relationship with Musk to gain insight into Trump’s policy direction.
Conclusion: The renewed scrutiny of TikTok reflects broader concerns over national security and tech policy under the incoming administration. Musk’s role as an intermediary highlights his growing influence in shaping both corporate strategies and political agendas in this volatile environment.
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