面对供应过剩、价格战以及欧盟、印度、巴基斯坦和巴西等主要出口市场日益增长的保护主义威胁，中国领先的光伏出口商——包括天合光能、隆基绿能和通威股份——承诺停止在海外市场的价格下调竞争。这一举措旨在稳定出口市场，推动行业可持续发展。 主要动态 行业协作： 由 中国机电产品进出口商会 牵头成立了由 22家光伏企业 组成的“自律”委员会，致力于促进健康竞争，稳定出口价格。 政策调整： 自 12月1日 起，硅片、电池片和组件的出口退税率将从 13% 降至 9% ，旨在鼓励出口高附加值产品，减少反倾销调查风险。 产能过剩危机： 过度生产导致价格下滑，造成大量亏损、裁员，甚至企业破产，给中国光伏企业带来沉重压力。 全球影响： 中国在光伏出口市场的主导地位受到越来越多的关注，外国市场可能采取反补贴措施，这为行业增加了更多的不确定性。 专家观点 大和证券分析师Dennis Ip： 退税率下调可能对光伏组件公司的短期财务状况产生负面影响，但从长期来看影响有限。 隆基绿能的观点： 行业领导者认为，这一举措是中国光伏行业的“转折点”，强调合作对于维持全球竞争力的重要性。 展望 随着中国光伏企业努力实现市场稳定，向高附加值产品和合作战略的转型有望改善行业的全球形象和长期韧性。然而， 产能过剩 和 退税减少 的直接挑战依然严峻。在国际市场压力下，如何平衡短期财务影响与长期发展需求，将成为行业关键议题
The battle over electric vehicle (EV) tax credits is intensifying as California Governor Gavin Newsom plans to reinstate state EV purchase credits if President-elect Donald Trump eliminates the Federal EV credit, which offers up to $7,500 per purchase. Tesla’s stock fell 4% on Monday, while Rivian (RIVN) surged over 13% following the announcement.
Key Points:
California’s Potential Tesla Exclusion:
- Newsom hinted Tesla might be excluded from state EV credits, citing a cap to “promote innovation and competition.”
- Tesla’s dominance (accounting for 50% of U.S. EV sales) could place it at a disadvantage under such limits.
Federal Credit Phase-Out:
- Trump is expected to scrap the Federal EV tax credit, impacting affordability for buyers.
- Analysts believe Tesla, with its global scale and cost efficiency, can weather the change better than rivals like Rivian.
Economic Implications:
- ZEV credits have been a significant revenue stream for Tesla, generating $10 billion since 2018—about 25% of its operating profit.
- Rivian projects $300 million in 2024 credit sales, underscoring its reliance on these incentives.
Political Drama:
- Newsom’s move could provoke Federal challenges to California’s authority to regulate emissions, endangering Tesla’s ZEV credit sales.
- Despite tensions, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes Tesla and Musk will emerge as winners, maintaining a $400 price target for the stock.
Market Impact:
- Tesla’s stock closed at $334.50, down 1.2% in after-hours trading.
- Rivian shares dropped 1.7% to $11.40 after hours, following a 13% gain earlier.
Bottom Line:
The EV tax credit battle between California and Washington highlights Tesla’s resilience and dominance but introduces new uncertainties for investors. Analysts are betting on Musk’s close ties with the Trump administration to navigate this "soap opera moment."
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