Key Takeaway: U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a softer stance toward Canada in tariff negotiations but gave no firm commitment on the future of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), keeping trade uncertainty elevated ahead of the 2026 review.
Overview
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he intends to treat Canada “fairly” in talks over U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods but stopped short of endorsing the current USMCA trade pact.
“I think they are going to walk away very happy,” Trump told reporters ahead of a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House.
Carney, in Washington for the second time in five months, faces growing domestic pressure to resolve tariffs on steel, autos, and other key exports.
Progress but No Breakthrough
Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc described the meeting as “positive and substantive” but said no deal was imminent.
“I am happy because we have momentum now that we did not have this morning, but we have not yet finished our work,” LeBlanc said, noting that officials could reconvene as early as Tuesday evening.
Talks reportedly focused on steel and aluminum tariffs, with both sides exploring ways to align economic and security interests.
USMCA or Bilateral Deals?
Trump indicated openness to revising the USMCA or pursuing separate bilateral agreements.
“We can renegotiate it, and that would be good, or we could just do different deals,” he said. “I want to make whatever the best deal is for this country — and also with Canada in mind.”
Carney has shifted from earlier calls for a separate trade and security pact toward preparing for the 2026 USMCA review, given limited progress on tariff relief.
Political and Economic Context
Carney succeeded Justin Trudeau in March and has adopted a more conciliatory tone toward Washington. Trump described Carney as “a good friend,” joking about a “merger” of the two countries during their meeting.
Despite a lighter tone, Canada remains vulnerable. Roughly 75% of Canadian exports go to the U.S., with steel, aluminum, and auto manufacturers facing the sharpest impact from ongoing tariffs.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Carney to take a firmer stance, saying Canada “must hit back hard” if negotiations fail. Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre also criticized the government for falling short on its earlier pledge to secure a trade win by July.
Broader Implications
Canada has rolled back several counter-tariffs and dropped its digital services tax targeting U.S. tech firms.
The two nations agreed to cooperate on a “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative, highlighting areas of shared security interest despite trade tensions.
Anti-U.S. sentiment in Canada is growing, with some provinces threatening to retaliate economically.
Outlook
While the tone of U.S.-Canada relations has softened, Trump’s reluctance to reaffirm the USMCA adds to policy uncertainty for North American trade and manufacturing.
Investors will watch for:
Any follow-up meetings or tariff revisions.
Canada’s stance in the 2026 USMCA review process.
Potential shifts in supply chain strategies among Canadian industrial exporters.
Bottom line: Talks show goodwill but limited substance. Until a clear commitment on trade terms emerges, cross-border business confidence may remain cautious heading into 2026.

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