The past week delivered a powerful mix of trade tension, slowing growth, rising inflation, and recession warnings, keeping investors on edge.
Here’s what mattered most.
1️⃣ Trump’s 15% Global Tariff Faces Pushback
President Donald Trump announced a new 10% global tariff, later raised to 15%, after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that trade authority rests with Congress — not the executive branch.
The move:
Drew opposition from Republican lawmakers
Increased legal uncertainty
Added to market volatility
Policy unpredictability is now a key market risk.
2️⃣ Recession Indicator Flashes Warning
US heavy truck sales — a leading economic indicator — are weakening.
The 2025 retreat suggests:
Businesses are cautious
Forward demand expectations are softening
Early-cycle capital spending is slowing — often a recession precursor.
3️⃣ GDP Slows, Inflation Ticks Higher
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis:
Q4 2025 GDP: +1.4% (annualised)
Sharp slowdown
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose unexpectedly
This puts the Federal Reserve in a bind:
Growth is cooling
Inflation remains sticky
Stagflation-lite concerns are resurfacing.
4️⃣ White House Pushes Home Investor Ban
The administration is advancing plans to:
Ban investors owning 100+ single-family homes
Prevent large-scale acquisitions
However:
The policy could disrupt rental markets
May face legal and political hurdles
5️⃣ JPMorgan CEO Named in Trump Lawsuit
JPMorgan Chase’s legal team says CEO Jamie Dimon was wrongly included in Trump’s lawsuit.
They argue:
Florida state law cited does not apply
Case should move to federal court
Adds to legal noise around the banking sector.
Market Takeaway
This week’s theme: uncertainty everywhere.
Trade policy confusion
Slowing growth
Sticky inflation
Political and legal crosscurrents
Markets now face a critical question:
Is this a temporary soft patch — or the start of a broader downturn?
Bottom Line
The US economy is navigating:
Slower momentum
Higher policy uncertainty
Mixed macro signals
If recession indicators strengthen and tariffs escalate, volatility could intensify quickly.

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