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Quick Summary
Coca-Cola issued a 2026 sales outlook that slightly missed market expectations, sending shares lower despite continued strength in zero-sugar products.
What Happened
Coca-Cola guided for organic sales growth of 4%–5% in 2026
Street expectation: ~5.01%, putting the lower end below estimates
Shares fell up to 4.1% in premarket trading
Key Points to Watch
2026 sales outlook disappointed on the lower end of guidance
Zero-sugar products remain the growth engine, but not enough to fully lift sentiment
Policy and regulatory pressure is emerging as a new overhang
Zero-Sugar Still the Bright Spot
Coca-Cola continues to benefit from shifting consumer preferences:
Coca-Cola Zero Sugar: +14% growth in 2025
Diet Coke: +2% in Q4, flat for the full year
Demand for full-sugar sodas continues to decline, while sugar-free, sports drinks, and water gain share
This reinforces Coca-Cola’s long-term strategy to diversify beyond traditional sodas.
Why Investors Are Nervous
Despite strong brands and stable earnings:
New state programs restrict food-aid benefits from being used to buy soft drinks
Public health messaging from the Trump administration labels soda as unhealthy
These factors could limit volume growth, especially in lower-income demographics
Earnings Snapshot
Q4 adjusted EPS: 58 cents, slightly above expectations
Stock performance YTD (before results): +12%, vs ~+2% for S&P 500
Bottom Line
Coca-Cola’s zero-sugar momentum is real, but policy risks and a cautious 2026 outlook are tempering investor enthusiasm. The stock’s pullback reflects concern that health trends and regulation may cap future growth, even as the company successfully adapts its product mix.
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