Asian markets opened cautiously on Monday as investors grappled with renewed uncertainty over US tariffs, while all eyes turn to NVIDIA earnings — a key test for the global AI rally.
Tariff Chaos Clouds Outlook
Markets were rattled after the US Supreme Court struck down emergency tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, prompting the White House to announce:
A new 10% global tariff
Then a surprise increase to 15%
It remains unclear:
When tariffs take effect
Which countries are excluded
Whether all nations face the 15% rate
Key issue: Policy unpredictability is reviving “sell America” sentiment.
Market Snapshot
MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan: +0.5% (thin trade)
South Korea: +2.0% (after +5.5% last week to record highs)
S&P 500 futures: -0.3%
Nasdaq futures: -0.4%
Japan markets were closed for a holiday.
Nvidia Earnings: AI Sentiment at Risk
Nvidia, which accounts for ~8% of the S&P 500, is expected to report:
EPS forecast: US$7.76 (+71% YoY)
Range of estimates: US$6.28–US$9.68
Options imply ±6% share move
A miss could shake the entire AI trade. A beat could reignite it.
Dollar & Rates
The dollar slipped amid trade-policy uncertainty:
USD/JPY: -0.4% to 154.36
EUR/USD: +0.4% to 1.1826
USD/CHF: -0.5%
Treasury futures softened after tariff confusion raised questions over potential US$170B revenue repayment, which could widen the fiscal deficit to ~6.6% of GDP.
June Fed rate-cut odds now stand near 52%, down from 60% last week.
Commodities
Gold: +0.8% to US$5,143
Silver: +2% (after 8% surge Friday)
Brent crude: -0.6% to US$71.29
WTI crude: -0.8% to US$65.95
Oil traders are watching US-Iran talks in Geneva, amid lingering military-strike risks if negotiations fail.
Bottom Line
Markets are caught between:
Tariff policy uncertainty
AI earnings risk
Mixed US macro signals
Geopolitical tensions

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