Quick Summary
Bank of Korea keeps benchmark rate at 2.50%
New dot-plot chart shows majority see no change for 6 months
2026 growth forecast raised to 2.0%
Chip export boom supports economic outlook
Rate Decision: Pause Confirmed
The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, in line with expectations.
All 34 economists polled by Reuters had predicted no move.
Key point: Policymakers are signalling stability — not easing, not tightening.
Dot Plot Debut: Clear Message of No Hike
For the first time, the BOK introduced a Federal Reserve-style dot plot, showing rate expectations over the next six months.
Out of 21 dots
16 pointed to 2.50%
Suggesting no change until at least August
This indicates a strong consensus for a prolonged pause.
Growth Outlook Improved
The BOK raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.8%.
The upgrade reflects:
Strong semiconductor exports
Chip boom led by:
Samsung Electronics
SK Hynix
South Korea’s economy is expected to outperform 2025 growth, even amid US trade uncertainties.
Market Reaction
3-year treasury futures rose
KOSPI recently crossed 6,000 for the first time, extending a world-leading rally
However, analysts caution:
Rate hikes would likely require inflation above 2.5%
USD/KRW weakening beyond 1,550
Why the Pause?
The central bank remains cautious due to:
Currency volatility
Elevated household debt
Uncertainty over US tariffs
While inflation is steady, policymakers want more time to evaluate financial stability risks.
Bottom Line
South Korea is entering a policy holding pattern.
With growth improving and inflation stable, the Bank of Korea sees little urgency to adjust rates.
For now, the chip export boom is buying policymakers valuable time — but global trade risks remain the wildcard.
Key Takeaways
Rate held at 2.50%
Dot plot signals 6-month pause
Growth forecast raised to 2.0%
Chip exports driving optimism

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