Quick Summary
Gas Malaysia fell 5.3% to RM4.50, hitting a one-month low
FY2025 net profit came in below estimates
Maybank IB trims FY2026–2027 forecasts
Dividend yield around 5% offers downside support
Earnings Miss Weighs on Sentiment
Shares of Gas Malaysia Bhd dropped 25 sen to RM4.50 after its quarterly results fell short of expectations.
For 4QFY2025:
Net profit: RM87 million
FY2025 net profit: RM382 million
8% below Maybank IB estimates
6% below consensus forecasts
Maybank Investment Bank attributed the miss to:
Lower-than-expected spreads
Possible retrospective gas cost adjustments
Key issue: Margin compression in the latest quarter.
Outlook: Lower Gas Prices Ahead
Maybank IB highlighted that:
Domestic gas prices are trending lower in FY2026
This could reduce retail profit margins
However:
Higher distribution profits may partially offset the weakness
Regulatory Period 3 (2026–2028) includes a tariff increase, though impact remains unclear
As a result:
FY2026 profit forecast cut by 7%
FY2027 profit forecast cut by 8%
Target price lowered to RM3.90 (from RM4.00)
Rating maintained at “Hold”
Dividend Support Still Intact
Despite weaker earnings:
8.5 sen interim dividend declared
Final dividend of up to 8 sen expected (75% payout ratio)
Dividend yield stands at roughly 5%
This yield may provide some valuation cushion in the near term.
Valuation Check
According to AskEdge:
15x trailing P/E
4.1x price-to-book ratio
Highest among peers
This suggests the stock may not be cheap relative to sector counterparts.
Bottom Line
Gas Malaysia faces near-term earnings headwinds from lower gas prices and margin pressures.
While dividend yield offers support, limited earnings growth and forecast downgrades cap upside potential.
Investors may stay cautious until clearer margin visibility emerges.
Key Takeaways
Profit missed estimates due to weaker spreads
Forecasts trimmed for FY2026–2027
Dividend yield remains attractive
Valuation relatively rich among peers

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