Bern Signals Willingness to Revise Offer Amid Trump’s Trade Reset
Switzerland is preparing to rework its proposal to Washington after U.S. President Donald Trump slapped the country with a 39% import duty, one of the steepest in his global tariff overhaul. Business Minister Guy Parmelin said the government is “ready to revise its offer” to avert the looming trade shock, as industry groups warn the move could put tens of thousands of jobs at risk. A special cabinet meeting is scheduled Monday ahead of the Aug. 7 implementation date.
U.S. Trade Deficit and LNG Deals on the Table
Parmelin noted Trump’s focus on the US$48 billion U.S. trade deficit with Switzerland and signaled that commitments to purchase U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) or increase Swiss corporate investments in the U.S. could be bargaining chips. “We’ll do everything we can to show goodwill,” Parmelin said, adding that both he and Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter are prepared to travel to Washington for direct talks if necessary.
Economic Fallout: Risk of Recession and Policy Easing
Economists warn the tariffs could slash Swiss GDP by 0.3% to 0.6%, with prolonged disruptions potentially dragging growth down by over 1% if pharmaceuticals are included. ETH economist Hans Gersbach said the tariff shock poses a “clear recession risk” to Switzerland’s export-driven economy. Nomura expects the Swiss National Bank to respond with a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, potentially taking the policy rate to -0.25% as authorities move to counter deflationary pressures.
Market Reaction: Swiss Equities Under Pressure
Swiss shares are set for a volatile open Monday after being closed for the Swiss National Day holiday on Friday. Export-heavy sectors, particularly pharmaceuticals, watches, and machinery, are expected to bear the brunt of investor concerns.
Investment Take:
With the Aug. 7 deadline looming, markets are watching closely for any sign of a compromise. A revised Swiss offer that includes LNG deals or U.S.-based investments could help soften the blow, but the risk of short-term economic contraction and SNB policy easing is now firmly on the radar for investors holding Swiss assets.
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