South Korea’s central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged for the second straight meeting, balancing the need to support a weak economy against the risks of soaring household debt.
Policy Decision
Benchmark rate: Held at 2.50% by unanimous vote of the seven-member board.
Market expectation: 27 of 35 economists polled by Reuters predicted no change.
Growth outlook: Revised up to 0.9% for 2025 (from 0.8%), though still the slowest pace since 2020.
Why the Hold?
Mortgage debt risk: Four rate cuts since last year have accelerated household debt, raising financial imbalance concerns.
Housing market: BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong flagged that home prices in parts of Seoul remain “still rising at a high rate.”
Global context: With the US Federal Reserve signaling a rate cut soon, analysts expect the BOK to follow, but with caution.
Market & Analyst Views
Citi Research (Kim Jin-wook): Sees a 25 bps cut in October, noting Rhee’s preference to avoid over-delivery of easing during his term (ending April 2026).
Exports: Rose for a second consecutive month in July, led by chips and car sales, with exporters rushing shipments ahead of possible higher US tariffs.
Inflation vs. easing: The sluggish recovery reduces inflation fears, but the BOK may not cut as aggressively as peers since it tightened less during the pandemic.
Outlook
Analysts expect the BOK to cautiously resume easing in Q4, balancing:
Growth risks from global trade tensions and tariffs.
Debt stability, particularly in the housing sector.
Any moves will likely be smaller and slower than global peers, reflecting Korea’s unique mix of risks.
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