Singapore’s grocery retail sector continues to display resilience, with RHB keeping its “Overweight” rating on retail staples, citing steady earnings, defensive positioning, and reliable dividend payouts.
Sector Outlook
Resilient earnings underpinned by defensive demand.
Supermarket sales averaged 127 index points (Jan–Jun 2025), above the 2024 average of 124.
Growth supported by stronger consumer demand and new public housing developments.
Estates like Kranji could open long-term expansion opportunities, particularly for Sheng Siong, given its track record of aligning with HDB launches.
Top Picks
Sheng Siong (SGX: OV8)
Earnings CAGR: Projected at 10% through FY2027.
1H25 performance: Stronger revenue and improved margins prompted RHB to raise forecasts.
Store expansion: New outlets now average 8,500 sq ft, larger than the earlier 6,000 sq ft estimate — boosting leverage and margin potential.
Valuation:
Trading at 20.6x FY25F P/E.
17% upside potential.
Dividend yield: 3.4%.
Strengths: Solid balance sheet, healthy cash flow, efficient cost control.
DFI Retail Group (SGX: D01)
Earnings CAGR: Forecast at 13% through FY2027.
Recovery drivers: Health & beauty and home furnishing segments outperforming; reduced drag from associates.
Corporate actions: Store rationalisation and staff right-sizing expected to further improve earnings.
Valuation:
30% upside potential.
FY25F P/E: 17.1x.
Dividend yield: 3.3%, with a surprise special dividend of 44.3 US cents paid in 1H25.
Analyst Take
RHB view: Sheng Siong is a dependable compounder, while DFI remains on track for earnings recovery.
The brokerage highlights that retail staples are positioned to benefit from stable demand, housing-linked growth, and restructuring gains.
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