Key Takeaways:
Market Selloff: Jakarta Composite Index fell 2.3% intraday, closing down 1.3%, marking its sharpest fall since June 23.
Currency Weakness: Rupiah dropped 0.95% to 16,495/USD, before paring losses to -0.8% on suspected Bank Indonesia intervention.
Trigger: Violent protests in Jakarta, including a fatal incident, have raised political risk concerns and shaken investor sentiment.
Regional Context: Asian markets broadly cautious ahead of US inflation data, with most currencies weaker; the Philippines peso and South Korean won down 0.4%.
Broader Trend: Despite today’s fall, Jakarta benchmark remains +3.8% in August, following a strong rally since April.
Market Reaction
Equities: The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) staged its steepest intraday drop in two months, as investors reacted to violent protests over lawmakers’ pay and education funding. Profit-taking was a clear theme following the JCI’s record high on Thursday.
Currency: The rupiah led regional declines, pressured by capital outflows, before stabilising after Bank Indonesia intervention across spot and offshore markets.
Political Unrest as Catalyst
The protests intensified after a motorcyclist was killed in clashes with police, raising domestic political tensions. The event has injected short-term volatility into an otherwise strong equity market, reminding investors of Indonesia’s sensitivity to political developments.
Regional Market Snapshot
Thailand: Shares slipped 0.2% as the Constitutional Court deliberates on PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s dismissal case.
South Korea & Philippines: Equities fell 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.
Singapore & Taiwan: Both markets gained 0.4%, bucking the regional trend.
Currencies largely weakened across Asia:
Peso & Won: -0.4%.
Ringgit: -0.2%.
Singapore dollar & Taiwan dollar: flat.
Indian rupee: record low.
Global Macro Overlay
US Dollar: Index rose 0.2% Friday but remains -2% for the week, pressured by Fed rate cut bets.
Emerging Markets: The MSCI EM currency gauge gained 0.2% this week, while equities outside Japan traded flat, reflecting mixed risk sentiment.
Investor Takeaway
While the rupiah and equities faced a sharp pullback, today’s selloff appears to be profit-taking amplified by political protests, rather than a structural reversal. The JCI remains positive for August. That said, short-term volatilitywill likely persist until political tensions ease. Longer term, market resilience may hinge on stability in domestic politics and global macro drivers such as US monetary policy.
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