KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 5 (Bernama) -- Bursa Malaysia closed lower on Friday amid mixed regional market performance as investors turned cautious over a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and upcoming US economic data that may influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision next week. At 5 pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) pared most earlier losses to settle 4.55 points easier, or 0.28 per cent, to 1,616.52 from Thursday’s close of 1,621.07. The benchmark index, which opened 0.37 of-a-point lower at 1,620.70, moved between 1,609.67 and 1,621.25 throughout the day. The broader market was negative, with decliners outpacing advancers 604 to 439. A total of 550 counters were unchanged, 1,151 untraded, and 18 suspended. Turnover declined to 3.17 billion units worth RM2.24 billion from 4.48 billion units worth RM2.75 billion yesterday. Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd vice-presiden...
Key Forecasts
Policy Rate: Riksbank expected to cut 50bps this year to 1.5% by November (vs. previous forecast of 1.75%).
Growth Outlook:
2025 GDP revised down to 1.0% (from 1.5% prior).
Growth seen accelerating to 2.3% in 2026, easing to 2.2% in 2027.
Unemployment: Projected to decline gradually from 8.7% (2025) → 7.9% (2027).
Macro Context
Exports hit: US tariff hikes weighing on Swedish exporters like Volvo Cars, delaying recovery momentum.
Riksbank signal: Central bank has already hinted a cut from the current 2.0% rate before year-end remains “on the table.”
Policy support needed: Swedbank stresses that stable growth requires both monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Rate Path Outlook
2025: Cut to 1.5% by Nov.
2026: Rate held steady at 1.5%.
2027: Modest hike back to 1.75% as economy stabilizes.
Investor Takeaway
Bonds: Lower rate path supportive for Swedish fixed income, especially at the front end of the curve.
SEK: Softer trajectory in near term; watch EUR/SEK moves.
Equities: Rate support could cushion domestic demand, but exporters remain vulnerable to global trade headwinds.
Bottom Line: Swedbank now sees the Riksbank taking a more aggressive easing stance to counter external shocks. The path back to normalisation is pushed further out, keeping Sweden in a lower-for-longer rate environment.
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