Nvidia delivered another revenue beat and forecast stronger sales ahead, yet its stock slipped as investors fixated on weakness in China and hints of more cautious cloud spending.
Q3 Outlook: Higher but Not Enough
Guidance: Revenue of US$54B ±2%, topping Wall Street’s US$53.14B consensus (LSEG).
Reaction: Shares fell 2.6% after hours, erasing US$110B in market cap — more than Intel’s entire valuation.
Why the sell-off: Analysts noted the forecast excluded China, leaving upside only if shipments resume.
China Question Mark
Nvidia halted shipments of its H20 chips to China amid US trade restrictions.
A deal with the Trump administration requires Nvidia to pay 15% commission on China sales in exchange for eased restrictions, though Beijing has cautioned local firms against imports.
Nvidia had earlier warned curbs could cost US$8B in July-quarter sales.
Q2 Performance Highlights
Revenue: US$46.74B (vs. US$46.06B est.), +56% YoY.
Data centre sales: US$41B, about half from large cloud providers, but slightly below expectations (US$41.42B est.).
Single deal: One non-China customer bought US$650M worth of H20 chips.
Buyback: Approved US$60B in share repurchases.
Strategic Growth Drivers
Sovereign AI push: Nvidia expects US$20B revenue this year from selling AI systems to governments.
Long-term view: CFO Colette Kress projected US$3T–US$4T in AI infrastructure spending by 2030, with US$600B already flowing in 2025.
Cloud providers: Meta, Microsoft and others remain heavy buyers, though analysts caution hyperscaler spending may tighten if near-term AI returns stay unclear.
Market Impact
Nvidia remains the AI rally bellwether, driving much of the S&P 500’s gains over two years.
But this earnings reaction was muted: “The smallest since Nvidia’s AI incarnation,” one strategist noted.
Investors are looking past blowout numbers to China risk, cloud capex discipline, and trade politics as key determinants of Nvidia’s trajectory.
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