Key Takeaway
Malaysia’s semiconductor sector may avoid the full impact of the proposed 100% U.S. chip tariff, with up to 65% of exports potentially exempted due to originating from U.S. firms operating in Malaysia, according to CIMB analysts.
Tariff Exposure
Around 65% of Malaysia’s chip exports to the U.S. come from American companies with domestic facilities.
An additional portion of the remaining 35% may also qualify for exemption due to U.S. ownership or linkages.
Macro Sensitivity
Every 10% of chip exports affected could reduce Malaysia’s GDP by 0.29%, highlighting the economy’s exposure to U.S. policy shifts.
Analysts caution that while exemptions may soften short-term impact, longer-term risks remain as companies reassess supply chain locations, potentially denting Malaysia’s investment outlook.
Policy & Outlook
CIMB holds its 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%.
Expects Bank Negara Malaysia to keep the OPR steady at 2.75% through 2025, as policymakers weigh tariff uncertainties against domestic inflation.
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