Market Highlights
Nikkei 225 rose +2.1% to a record 42,715.72, breaking the previous peak of 42,426.77 (July 11, 2024).
Topix also hit a new all-time high, extending a rally that began July 24.
Gains driven by tech stocks:
SoftBank Group +6.7% after reports it’s selecting banks for a US IPO of PayPay.
Advantest and Lasertec +5%+ each on semiconductor strength.
Drivers & Context
Global Momentum – Nikkei follows the S&P 500 and MSCI World Index, which hit record highs since June, boosted by AI enthusiasm.
Catch-Up Rally – Earlier lag due to weak chip and auto stocks; recent tech rebound pushed Nikkei past resistance.
SoftBank Catalyst – IPO of PayPay seen as a major liquidity event; could boost SoftBank’s tech portfolio value.
Caution Flags
Tech-Led Peak Risk – Portfolio managers warn Nikkei could “soon peak” if U.S. tech momentum slows.
Foreign Flows Reversal – Overseas investors turned net sellers (¥342B) for the first time in 16 weeks, vs. ¥1.26T net buying the prior week.
Tariff Overhang – Markets have recovered from Trump’s April 2 tariff shock, but trade policy remains a macro risk.
Investor Watchpoints
PayPay IPO Timeline – Any valuation targets could lift SoftBank further.
Sustainability of Tech Rally – Earnings from U.S. and Asian chipmakers will be key.
Foreign Investor Flows – Persistent outflows could pressure momentum despite domestic buying.
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