Strong Domestic Demand and Business Investment Offset Tariff Headwinds
Japan’s economy grew 1% annualised in Q2, beating forecasts of 0.4% and reversing the prior quarter’s preliminary contraction. Gains were driven by business investment (+1.3% QoQ) and private consumption (+0.2%), signalling resilience despite higher US tariffs on autos and steel.
The yen strengthened on the news, with markets now pricing a higher probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike in October. Bloomberg’s survey shows 42% of economists expect the move, up from previous expectations of no change.
Key drivers:
Corporate Capex Resilience: BOJ’s Tankan survey showed large firms plan to boost FY25 investment by 11.5%, up from 3.1%.
Consumer Spending Support: Solid wage gains (+5% YoY) from spring negotiations are gradually lifting household incomes.
Net Export Boost: +0.3ppt to GDP as exports rose 2% despite tariffs, aided by price cuts, front-loaded shipments, and record inbound tourism (+18% visitor spending).
Risks ahead:
Tariff effects may deepen in Q3 as front-loading ends.
Persistent inflation remains above the BOJ’s target, though rising real wages could cushion household spending.
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