Key Highlights:
Dollar Weakness: USD hits two-week low as traders price in September Fed rate cut
Rate Cut Odds: 100% chance priced for September cut; 50bps cut probability rises to 7% from 0% last week
Equities: MSCI Asia ex-Japan near highest since Sep 2021; Nikkei dips after six-day rally above 43,000
Bitcoin Surge: Hits all-time high of US$124,002.49 (+32% YTD)
Gold & Oil: Gold +0.5% to US$3,371; oil recovers after two-month low
Monetary Policy Outlook:
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flagged a possible 50bps cut in September, citing weak labour data from May–July
Goldman Sachs projects three 25bps cuts in 2025 and two more in 2026
Analysts caution that upcoming CPI and payrolls data will be key in determining the Fed’s decision
Crypto & Commodities:
Bitcoin: Record high on Fed easing optimism and financial reforms; Ethereum +41% YTD, near Nov 2021 peak
Gold: Gains on rate-cut bets
Oil: Slight rebound ahead of Trump–Putin summit; Goldman sees limited Russia supply disruption despite geopolitical risks
Geopolitics:
Trump warns of “severe consequences” if no Ukraine peace deal with Putin, hints at second meeting with Zelenskiy
Recent tariffs: Extra 25% duty on Indian exports over Russian oil imports; possible similar move on China
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