As Trump’s sweeping tariffs officially kicked in at midnight, the bond market reacted sharply:
10-Year Yield surged to 4.516%, before settling around 4.35% (+4.5 bps)
30-Year Yield rose to 4.83% (+5.4 bps)
What’s Happening?
Foreign demand jitters: Fears that foreign buyers, especially China, might pull back from U.S. Treasurys due to the trade war.
Hedge fund selloff: Analysts point to hedge funds unwinding “basis trades” — a leveraged strategy reliant on price stability in Treasurys.
Inflation impact: Tariffs are inflationary, which erodes bond values and raises yield expectations.
Upcoming tests:
🗓️ $39B 10-Year Auction – Wednesday
🗓️ $22B 30-Year Auction – Thursday
Jim Bianco:
“Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation.”
China has called for dialogue but has made no concessions. Investors are now watching closely for signs of continued yield volatility, potential foreign selling, and Fed policy response.
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