With new US tariffs looming and fears of a global trade war rising, Goldman Sachs highlights a set of stocks it believes are insulated from macro-driven volatility. These companies could offer relative stability in a turbulent market.
The Market Context
Ahead of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to dip 6%over the next 3 months (~5,300) before recovering to 5,900 within 12 months—still below February's record high of 6,150.
Volatility is expected to persist as markets digest the escalating protectionist agenda and possible global retaliation.
Goldman's “Insensitive Portfolio”
Goldman Sachs identified 45 stocks with low correlation to trade war, AI disruption, and growth slowdown concerns. These companies tend to hold up better during macro-driven selloffs.
Top Mentions:
Amdocs (DOX) – Least sensitive to U.S. growth and trade risks.
Bank of New York Mellon (BK) – Financial exposure without major global supply chain risk.
S&P Global (SPGI) and Moody’s (MCO) – Credit-rating agencies with stable fee-based revenue.
Alphabet-C (GOOG) – The only “Magnificent Seven” stock on the list.
Kroger (KR), Valvoline (VVV) – Domestic-focused consumer staples and services.
Defensive Sectors in Focus
Healthcare
Boston Scientific (BSX), Medtronic (MDT), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Masimo (MASI)
Healthcare remains defensive with consistent earnings, despite political overhangs related to drug pricing and regulation.
“Healthcare stocks have a lot of defensive characteristics,” said Jim Polk (Homestead Funds).
Utilities
CenterPoint Energy (CNP) – 2.5% dividend yield.
PG&E Corp (PCG) – Recently reinstated dividend post-bankruptcy.
Seen as safe havens for income investors during downturns, thanks to stable cash flows and lower beta.
Key Takeaways
Goldman’s Insensitive Portfolio offers a playbook for navigating market shocks tied to trade tensions and macro policy uncertainty.
Investors seeking downside protection may look toward utilities, healthcare, and non-cyclical financials.
With volatility rising, sector selection and factor exposure will be more important than index-based positioning in the near term.
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