Spot gold hit a new record: US$3,167.57/oz on Thursday +19% year-to-date | +71% since end-2022 Key Takeaways: Trump’s Return Drives Structural De-Dollarisation Central banks are shifting reserves away from the US dollar and Treasuries due to: Tariff escalation and trade wars Unpredictable foreign policy (Ukraine, alliances) Concerns over long-term USD stability Quote: “Uncertainty about US economic policy will remain for years to come.” – Michael Widmer, BofA Central Bank Buying Already Surging Q4 2024: Purchases up 54% year-on-year to 333 tonnes (World Gold Council) Emerging market central banks currently hold around 10% of reserves in gold; BofA suggests a target of 30%, implying: 11,000 tonnes of potential future demand Demand Outlook: Stronger and Stealthier 2025 may see record-high central bank demand in decades Only 34% of estimated 2024 buying reported to IMF — suggesting undisclosed accumulation to avoid political friction with US Quote: “Trump has threatened tariffs on countri...
Tesla stock is ticking up ahead of its Q1 delivery report, even as analysts brace for a sharp miss of up to 90,000 vehicles. While this might sound alarming, a similar scenario played out last year — and the lesson then could give investors reason to stay patient rather than panic.
Delivery Data at a Glance
Expected Q1 2025 deliveries: ~380,000 vehicles
Earlier estimates: ~470,000 vehicles
Gap: ~90,000 vehicles short
Last year Q1 deliveries: ~387,000 vehicles
Current TSLA premarket price: $263 (+1.5%) despite weak EU sales
European Weakness, Political Backlash & Model Transition
In France, Tesla sold 3,157 cars in March — down 37% YoY
Quarterly French sales: ~7,000 vehicles, down 41% YoY
Weak U.S. and EU sales have raised concerns that Elon Musk’s political stances may be alienating environmentally conscious, left-leaning customers
Tesla’s Model Y refresh may also be holding back near-term sales as buyers wait for the upgraded version
🕰️ Historical Echo: 2024 Delivery Miss
Wall Street initially projected 490,000 vehicles in Q1 2024
Tesla delivered ~387,000, missing by 100,000 cars
Stock dropped ~30% in the weeks after
Bottomed around $140 before rebounding on the back of Musk’s Robotaxi event tease
What Happens if They Miss Again?
A result below 350,000 could rattle investors, repeating 2024’s post-delivery dip
A figure around 360,000–370,000 may provide breathing room, helping calm nerves and stabilize expectations for the year
Wall Street's full-year 2025 estimate has already fallen from 2.1 million to 1.9 million cars
Investors are watching to see if delivery estimates stop falling
Bottom Line for Investors
Tesla’s stock is up now, but risks remain if delivery numbers land closer to or below 350,000
If history repeats, Tesla shares may dip further post-announcement — unless Musk can shift focus with new innovation hype or long-term clarity
Investors should stay alert to Q1 delivery results on Wednesday, which may set the tone for TSLA’s second-quarter performance
Comments
Post a Comment