Overall Impact of US Tariffs:
Credit negative for the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region.
Likely to disrupt existing supply chains.
Unlikely to accelerate China+1 strategy in the near term.
Countries That May Gain:
Malaysia, India, and Philippines (10–30% tariff band):
Could gain US market share via trade triangulation.
Trade diversion expected in the short term.
India:
Large domestic market.
Attractive for companies seeking low-cost operations and consumer access.
Benefits to unfold over the next few years.
Countries at Risk Despite Lower Tariffs:
Singapore, Australia, New Zealand (10% baseline tariff):
May still feel the pinch due to high global trade exposure.
Singapore especially vulnerable to global trade slowdown.
Commodity-Heavy Economies:
Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia:
Rely heavily on Chinese demand.
A Chinese slowdown could reduce commodity export demand.
Frontier Market Risks:
Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh:
Weak current account balances.
Limited ability to import from the US.
Could face external pressure and slower economic growth.
Comments
Post a Comment