Semiconductor stocks exploded higher Wednesday, leading a broad market rally after Trump paused reciprocal tariffs for most countries (except China). But investors are now asking: Is it time to buy chip stocks?
Market Snapshot:
Nasdaq surged 12% after Trump's tariff pause announcement
SOXX ETF (Semiconductor Index) jumped 18%, rebounding from a 33% plunge since Feb 19
Chip giants:
Nvidia (NVDA): +18.72%
Taiwan Semi (TSM): +12.29%
Qualcomm (QCOM): +15.19%
Amazon (AMZN): +11.98% (on chip/data optimism)
Why Chips Are Volatile
Chip stocks are highly cyclical — when demand drops, profits fall fast.
Production can’t adjust as quickly as customer orders, leading to price pressure and margin declines.
When macro fears ease (like with Trump's tariff shift), these same names rebound sharply.
📉 The Buy Signal: Valuation
Before the rally, chip valuations were at historic lows, making them attractive.
Nvidia’s pre-rally price ($96) implied just 25x estimated earnings (near its 3-year low multiple of 24x).
Even in a “worst-case” recession scenario, Nvidia’s EPS might fall 14% to $3.80 — but the stock still looks reasonably priced.
“If Nvidia drops again to $96, it becomes a strong buying opportunity,” said analyst Stacy Rasgon (AllianceBernstein).
AI Spending = Long-Term Tailwind
Big Tech’s rising investments in AI and data centers will continue to boost chip demand, especially for leaders like Nvidia.
Even if recessionary risks return, structural growth drivers remain intact.
When to Buy:
Buy the dip: If chip stocks pull back again on policy uncertainty, valuations will likely look even more attractive.
Hold for long-term AI upside: As companies scale up AI capabilities, earnings will recover and grow, fueling the next rally.
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