Apple (AAPL) skyrocketed 15.3% on Wednesday — its biggest single-day gain since 1998 — following President Trump’s tariff pause. But despite the market celebration, analysts caution: Apple’s China risk still looms large.
What Sparked the Rally?
Trump paused 25% reciprocal tariffs for most countries for 90 days, holding a 10% baseline rate.
However, China is excluded — with tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 125%, effective immediately.
Relief over avoided tariffs — for now — fueled a broader tech stock surge.
Why Apple Still Faces Big Risks:
85%–90% of iPhones are made in China (Wedbush, CFRA estimates).
Shifting production is complex and costly, even with some existing operations in India and Vietnam.
Higher China tariffs could force Apple to raise prices or take margin hits.
“China remains the biggest X variable related to Apple and the broader supply chain,” said Daniel Ives (Wedbush).
The Bigger Picture:
Apple is still down 11% from levels before Trump’s tariff bombshell.
A prolonged China trade war = persistent cost and supply risks.
Calls to move manufacturing to the U.S. remain unrealistic in the near term.
Why Investors Jumped In Anyway:
Tariff rollback signals Trump may be responsive to economic fallout, including recession fears.
The stock market relief rally gave Apple — and other tech names — a major boost.
Hopes that Apple can expand production in lower-tariff countries more easily than rebuilding entirely new supply chains.
“We’re still a long way from clarity,” said Brendan Connaughton (Catalyst Private Wealth).“Clearly, Trump watches the market,” added Louis Navellier (Navellier & Associates).
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