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Central Bank Gold Buying to Accelerate Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty

Spot gold hit a new record: US$3,167.57/oz on Thursday +19% year-to-date | +71% since end-2022 Key Takeaways: Trump’s Return Drives Structural De-Dollarisation Central banks are shifting reserves away from the US dollar and Treasuries due to: Tariff escalation and trade wars Unpredictable foreign policy (Ukraine, alliances) Concerns over long-term USD stability Quote: “Uncertainty about US economic policy will remain for years to come.” – Michael Widmer, BofA Central Bank Buying Already Surging Q4 2024: Purchases up 54% year-on-year to 333 tonnes (World Gold Council) Emerging market central banks currently hold around 10% of reserves in gold; BofA suggests a target of 30%, implying: 11,000 tonnes of potential future demand Demand Outlook: Stronger and Stealthier 2025 may see record-high central bank demand in decades Only 34% of estimated 2024 buying reported to IMF — suggesting undisclosed accumulation to avoid political friction with US Quote: “Trump has threatened tariffs on countri...
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US Dollar Outlook: Stabilization Ahead, but Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Sentiment

Despite market volatility, the US dollar is expected to remain broadly stable in the near term. However, President Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda is clouding the outlook and undermining the greenback’s traditional safe-haven status.

Market Dynamics

  • A Reuters FX strategist poll suggests the USD will hold steady over the coming months.

  • However, sentiment is weakening as tariff-related uncertainty escalates, disrupting traditional trading patterns.

Positioning Shift

  • Speculators have flipped to net short on the USD for the first time since October, according to CFTC data.

  • A sharp reversal from earlier in 2025, when positioning was heavily long due to Fed policy divergence and US growth resilience.

  • Rate cut expectations have increased, with markets now pricing in three Fed cuts in 2025, versus two previously.

Caution on Pre-Positioning

“There’s fatigue in trying to navigate U.S. tariffs… investors don’t want to get trapped pre-positioning,”
— Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research, HSBC

  • Traders are holding back amid policy unpredictability, wary of being caught offside by shifting tariff announcements.

  • No clear consensus emerged on how USD positioning may evolve through April—a notable shift from the bullish consensus earlier this year.

Key Takeaways

  • USD likely to stabilize, but sentiment is increasingly fragile due to Trump’s trade moves.

  • Safe-haven appeal is under question, with investors exploring alternatives amid geopolitical and policy risks.

  • Short-term volatility remains elevated, and traders are shifting to a more neutral or defensive stance.

  • Fed expectations are softening, adding a further weight to the dollar’s upside potential.

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