The latest US tariff wave may hurt Asia-Pacific (Apac) overall, but Malaysia and several peers could gain market share through trade triangulation, according to Moody’s Ratings.
What Moody’s Says:
The new US tariffs are credit negative for Apac, particularly for economies tied closely to China.
However, countries with mid-range tariffs (10–30%) — like Malaysia, India, and the Philippines — may benefit as companies reroute trade flows to access the US market.
This shift may boost Malaysia’s role in the regional supply chain, particularly in electronics and manufacturing.
Key Opportunities:
Trade triangulation: Companies may export goods to the US via Malaysia or relocate production to avoid steep China tariffs.
Intra-regional investment is expected to grow as companies seek resilience in their supply chains.
“Lower-tariff countries may stand to gain market share on the margin from trade diversion,” Moody’s noted.
But Not Everyone Wins:
Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand face exposure to global slowdown, despite their low 10% tariff tier.
Indonesia could also feel pressure if China’s demand weakens, affecting commodity exports.
Frontier markets like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh face deeper challenges due to fragile external balances and limited trade links with the US.
Long-Term Outlook:
India is well-positioned due to its large domestic market and cost advantages, but gains will be gradual.
For Malaysia, this is a strategic opportunity to strengthen its export base and regional relevance, even amid tariff uncertainties.
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