The Federal Reserve sees rising risks of persistent inflation, with Trump’s sweeping tariffs a major concern highlighted in the minutes of the latest policy meeting.
What the Fed Said:
Tariffs were mentioned 18 times in the March 19–20 FOMC meeting minutes, up from just once in January.
Officials held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% and signaled three rate cuts by year-end, but stressed a “wait-and-see” approach amid uncertainty.
Key worry: “Inflationary effects may be more persistent than projected.”
What's Driving Concern:
Trump’s tariff policies, especially the 10% global baseline tariff and steeper “reciprocal” tariffs, are viewed as potential inflation accelerators.
Market volatility and tightening financial conditions are also seen as risks that could amplify economic shocks.
Business uncertainty is rising, as companies struggle to navigate unexpected tariff expansions.
Mixed Economic Signals:
Some Fed participants warned that the tariffs were broader and more aggressive than expected.
Yet others noted that weaker consumer savings and immigration constraints could limit economic growth, offsetting inflation risks.
Overall, the Fed sees a “high uncertainty” environment with downside risks to growth and employment, and upside risks to inflation.
🪙 Market Reaction:
Following Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, the S&P 500 surged 9.5%, its best day since 2008, joined by strong gains in the Nasdaq and Dow.
Despite the rally, traders and the Fed are aligned in expecting three quarter-point rate cuts this year.
What’s Next:
The next Fed policy meeting is set for May 6–7.
Until then, the Fed is likely to stay on hold, watching tariff developments, economic data, and inflation trends.
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