Key Takeaway
Trump’s aggressive tariff rollout has triggered a sharp risk-off shift, erasing the dollar’s post-election rally and fueling a structural bearish turn in the FX market.
Highlights:
- Bloomberg Dollar Spot IndexDown to lowest levels since October 2024 — effectively wiping out all gains made since Trump’s November victory.
Market Reaction
Dollar fell 1.5% Thursday, continued to slide in Asian trading Friday.
All G10 currencies rallied — led by the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
US 10-year Treasury yields dropped below 4%.
US equity market lost over $3 trillion in value Thursday.
Investor Sentiment Turning
CFTC data show speculative traders now net short the dollar — the first time since pre-election.
Amundi forecasts a 10% drop in the dollar this year amid recession risk.
ING warns the dollar is “naked” against weaker domestic growth.
- Shift in NarrativeEarly-year optimism from tax cuts and tariffs supporting a strong dollar has reversed. Analysts now highlight tariffs as a drag on growth, shifting sentiment toward safe havens.
- Strategic Insight“The famed ‘USD smile’ is now a sneer,” said Westpac’s Richard Franulovich, pointing to the breakdown in historical correlations between risk assets and the greenback.
Outlook:
With US rate cut expectations rising and global risk aversion escalating, the near-term dollar outlook remains bearish unless fiscal stimulus (e.g., tax cuts) is introduced to offset growth shocks.
Friday's US jobs data will be the next critical catalyst.
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