Spot gold hit a new record:
Key Takeaways:
Trump’s Return Drives Structural De-Dollarisation
Central banks are shifting reserves away from the US dollar and Treasuries due to:
Tariff escalation and trade wars
Unpredictable foreign policy (Ukraine, alliances)
Concerns over long-term USD stability
Quote: “Uncertainty about US economic policy will remain for years to come.” – Michael Widmer, BofA
Central Bank Buying Already Surging
Q4 2024: Purchases up 54% year-on-year to 333 tonnes (World Gold Council)
Emerging market central banks currently hold around 10% of reserves in gold; BofA suggests a target of 30%, implying:
11,000 tonnes of potential future demand
Demand Outlook: Stronger and Stealthier
2025 may see record-high central bank demand in decades
Only 34% of estimated 2024 buying reported to IMF — suggesting undisclosed accumulation to avoid political friction with US
Quote: “Trump has threatened tariffs on countries seen to be actively de-dollarising.”
Strategic Implications for Investors
Gold remains a favored hedge amid:
Currency risk
Geopolitical instability
Trade fragmentation
Inflationary pass-through from tariffs
Central bank demand (23% of global consumption) adds a floor under prices — less price sensitivity than in past cycles due to geopolitical risk premiums
Key Stats
Metric | Value |
---|---|
Spot Gold (latest) | $3,167.57/oz |
2025 YTD Gain | +19% |
Gain Since 2022 | +71% |
Q4 2024 CB Gold Buying | +54% YoY |
Largest Buyers (Jan-Feb) | Poland, China |
% of CB Buying Disclosed to IMF (2024) | 34% |
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