Philippine inflation eased to 0.9% YoY in July, the lowest since October 2019, driven by cheaper utilities and food — setting the stage for potential interest rate cuts by year-end.
Key Figures
CPI (July): 0.9% YoY (vs June: 1.4%, Reuters forecast: 1.1%)
7-month avg inflation: 1.7% (Below BSP’s 2.0%–4.0% target)
Core inflation: ▲ to 2.3% (from 2.2% in June)
Rice prices: ▼15.9% YoY (vs ▼14.3% in June)
Monetary Policy Outlook
BSP rate: 5.25% (2.5-year low)
Governor Remolona: Signals 2 more rate cuts likely in 2025
Next BSP rate review: Aug 28
Commentary: "More accommodative stance remains warranted"
Risks to Monitor
Rising geopolitical tensions
External policy uncertainties
Impact of previous rate hikes still unfolding
Key Upcoming Data
Q2 GDP (Aug 7): Expected to beat Q1’s 5.4%
Full-year growth forecast: Revised down to 5.5–6.5% (from 6–8%)
Risks Ahead
Sticky core inflation in the coming months
Volatile external food and oil prices
Geopolitical ripple effects from global trade conflicts
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