Positive Momentum Across the Region
Asian equities were set for a largely positive open Thursday, with futures signaling gains in Australia and Hong Kong, while Japan’s contracts pointed slightly lower. The optimism follows a second straight session of gains for US-listed Chinese stocks and a modest rise in the S&P 500, aided by advances in Apple and Amazon.
Bonds Rally as Rate-Cut Bets Intensify
US Treasury yields and the dollar both retreated, marking a sharp reversal from just two weeks ago when traders saw less than a 50% chance of a September Fed rate cut. Market pricing now reflects full expectations for a 25 bps reduction, with some positioning for a 50 bps move. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fueled the momentum, saying, “We could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50-basis-point rate cut in September.”
Policy Outlook
UBS Global Wealth Management’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps at each meeting through January 2026, totaling 100 bps.
Bessent suggested the Fed might already have cut in July if revised labor market data had been available earlier.
President Donald Trump hinted he may name the next Fed chair “a little bit early,” narrowing his choice to three or four candidates to replace Jerome Powell.
Economic Indicators to Watch
Traders are awaiting Thursday’s producer price index report for signs on input cost trends, followed by retail sales and consumer sentiment data Friday. According to City Index’s Fawad Razaqzada, companies have been absorbing tariff-related costs rather than passing them to consumers — giving the Fed more room to pivot without igniting inflation.
Corporate & Policy Developments
Trump’s plan to collect a share of revenue from US chip sales to China is prompting companies to rethink their China strategies, potentially offering a new framework to navigate ongoing trade tensions.
Geopolitical Backdrop
Tensions remain elevated as Trump warned of “very severe consequences” if Russia’s Vladimir Putin fails to agree to a ceasefire, following talks with European leaders ahead of a planned meeting.
With rate-cut momentum building and inflation data supporting a dovish shift, Asian markets are positioned to extend recent gains — though Japanese equities may face near-term pressure from currency strength and BOJ policy speculation.
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