Market Mood: Risk-On
Asian markets rallied for the second straight session as traders bet big on Fed rate cuts, following disappointing US job data and political drama at the US labor office.
MSCI Asia ex-Japan: ▲0.6%
Nikkei 225: ▲0.5% (bouncing back from its steepest fall in 2 months)
Dollar vs Yen: ▼0.1% to ¥146.96
Fed Rate Cut Odds (Sept): ↑ to 94% (from 63% on July 28)
Fed in Focus
Markets are now pricing in two quarter-point cuts by year-end.
“Maybe not in September, but certainly this year,” said NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, as parts of the US economy show weakness.
Adding fuel to the fire:
Trump fired the head of US labor stats after weak payroll data.
He’ll also get to appoint a new Fed governor, raising fears of politicized rate policy.
Oil & Commodities Check
Brent Crude: Flat at US$68.76
US Crude: ▼0.02% at US$66.28
Spot Gold: ▲ slightly to US$3,381.4/oz
Bitcoin: Holding gains at US$114,866.06
Oil prices are stuck as Opec+ supply increases battle with geopolitical jitters over Russia and potential disruptions.
Corporate Earnings Still Driving Sentiment
US tech stocks are roaring again:
Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta: All surged overnight
Palantir: Raised FY forecast again, citing AI-driven demand
Upcoming earnings: Eyes on Walt Disney and Caterpillar
Japan’s Service Sector Surprises
- S&P Global Services PMI: ↑ to 53.6 in July (vs. 51.7 in June)→ Strongest expansion since February
Global Futures Snapshot
Euro Stoxx 50: ▲0.2%
DAX: ▲0.3%
FTSE: ▲0.4%
S&P 500 e-minis: ▲0.2%
Takeaway
Global markets are riding the wave of dovish Fed expectations and robust tech earnings, even as tariff threats and political tension linger. Asia is following Wall Street’s lead with cautious optimism, while the yen strengthens and oil wobbles under supply pressure.
Risks to Watch
Trump’s India tariff threats
US labor and Fed governance shake-up
Fed timing: Will they cut in September or wait till Q4?
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