After two subdued years, Wall Street bonuses are expected to rise significantly across nearly all sectors, with debt underwriting likely to see the biggest gains. According to a report by compensation consultant Johnson Associates Inc., bankers involved in debt deals could see their bonuses increase by as much as 35% due to a resurgence in capital markets. Equity underwriters are also set to benefit, with potential bonus hikes of up to 30%.
Key Highlights:
Debt Underwriting: Bankers helping companies sell debt are poised for the largest bonus increases, with payouts potentially swelling by 35% as deals pick up and capital markets recover from lows.
Equity and Trading Gains: Equity underwriters could see bonuses rise by up to 30%, while equity traders may enjoy a 15% increase. Fixed-income traders might see more modest gains, with bonuses rising by 5% to 10%.
Wealth Management: The strong demand in wealth management is expected to drive up bonuses in that sector by as much as 10%.
Asset Management and Hedge Funds: Bonuses in asset management could rise by 10%, while hedge funds may see a 15% increase in incentive compensation due to stronger performance across various strategies.
Uncertain Outlook: Despite the positive forecast, uncertainties remain, including the U.S. economy, the upcoming U.S. election, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, which could impact certain sectors like retail and commercial banking. In these areas, bonuses could be flat or even down by 5%.
M&A Activity: Traditional merger-and-acquisition activity is slowly recovering, with bonuses in this field expected to be flat to up 5% as deal activity remains optimistic but not fully rebounded.
This potential surge in Wall Street bonuses comes after a pandemic-induced trading boom, followed by a temporary pullback. As markets stabilize and demand returns, compensation is set to reflect the renewed activity in capital markets.
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